Iran’s Esmail Baghaei criticized US proposals as “unserious” and demands as “unrealistic,” casting doubt on progress in negotiations. Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April sits at 36% YES, down from 62% yesterday.
The market’s decline follows Baghaei’s remarks, which signal a persistent deadlock. The April odds dropped 6 points at 9:40 PM as traders priced in skepticism about any US-Iran breakthrough. With just two days until the ceasefire expires, sentiment is increasingly bearish. US forces entering Iran and ceasefire odds could see indirect impacts, though they haven’t moved significantly yet.
The sub-market’s trading volume is $6,018 in actual USDC daily. It takes just $816 to shift the odds five points, making it susceptible to swings from larger orders. The largest single move was a 6-point drop, indicating bearish consensus among traders.
Baghaei’s statement matters because it points to the improbability of Trump conceding to Iran’s demands, especially given maximalist US positions. Buying YES at 36¢ pays $1 if Trump agrees to sanction relief, a risky bet unless you expect a last-minute diplomatic reversal.
Watch for any announcements from Trump’s side or leaks from the Islamabad talks. A change in tone from the White House or confirmation of mediator activity could shift the odds sharply before the ceasefire’s expiration.
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