## Market Snapshot
The “Iran leadership change by December 31” market is currently priced at 40.5% for a YES outcome, reflecting a slight increase from 40% over the past 24 hours. The “next US x Iran diplomatic meeting” market suggests lower likelihood, with a YES outcome decrease expected. The “Reza Pahlavi into Iran” market remains largely unaffected, with a 5.5% YES probability by June 30.
## Key Takeaways
– The push by Pezeshkian and Ghalibaf to dismiss Foreign Minister Araghchi suggests internal power struggles within Iran. – Market pricing suggests an increased perception of instability in Iran’s leadership, supportive of a YES outcome for leadership change by December 31. – The potential removal of Araghchi may indicate a decrease in the likelihood of imminent US-Iran diplomatic meetings.
## Article Body
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf are reportedly working to dismiss Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, according to Iran International. The move is reportedly due to dissatisfaction with Araghchi’s diplomatic approach, which they believe is too accommodating, particularly towards the IRGC commander, Ahmad Vahidi. This development is occurring amidst broader tensions following the 2026 Iran war ceasefire, where reformist and hardliner elements within the Iranian government are at odds. The IRGC, under Vahidi, has been exerting significant influence, complicating diplomatic efforts with the US and its allies.
## Market Interpretation
The reported internal power struggle in Iran is consistent with scenarios where the probability of leadership change increases, with markets reflecting a moderate impact. The push to fire Araghchi highlights internal divisions and may indicate potential shifts in Iran’s leadership, increasing the likelihood of such outcomes by the end of the year. This instability appears to decrease the likelihood of near-term US-Iran diplomatic meetings, as reflected in market expectations.
## What to Watch
Watch for any official announcements from Iranian state media or government officials regarding Araghchi’s dismissal. Further statements from the IRGC or other influential Iranian figures could provide additional insights into the internal power dynamics. Observers should also monitor any developments in US-Iran relations, particularly any official communications from the US State Department or Iranian Foreign Ministry that could impact diplomatic meeting probabilities.
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Iran Leadership Change| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 41% | — | — | View market → |
| April 30 | 0.4% | — | — | View market → |
| May 31 | 14.5% | — | — | View market → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 5.5% | — | — | View market → |
| December 31 | 13.5% | — | — | View market → |