Iranian fighter jets allegedly struck U.S. bases in Kuwait, causing extensive damage. The Iran military action by April 30 market now sits at 100% YES.
Market reaction
Every sub-market within the Iran military action against specified countries by April 30 contract is at 100% YES, meaning traders see no remaining uncertainty about Iranian strikes before the deadline. The Iranian regime fall by June 30 market ticked up to 8.5% YES from 8% yesterday.
The UK military action against Iran by April 30 market remains at 0.9% YES. Only $33 in actual USDC traded in that market over the last 24 hours, which points to near-zero trader interest in an imminent UK strike.
Why it matters
Confirmed Iranian attacks on U.S. bases make further military engagements more likely. The regime fall market at 8.5% YES shows some traders pricing in increased instability, but the number is still low enough to indicate most see the regime surviving through June. Buying YES at 8.5¢ pays $1 if the regime dissolves by June 30, a 11.8x return.
What to watch
The Pentagon’s response and any shifts in regional alliances could move these odds quickly. CENTCOM statements or announcements of retaliatory operations are the most likely catalysts.
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Iran Military Action Against April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 8.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.9% | — | — | Trade → |