Iran has indicated it may agree to an interim deal with the US to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, according to Axios. The crude oil all-time high by April 30 market is at 1.1% YES, down from 2% yesterday.
Market reaction
The signal toward de-escalation has pushed down odds of crude oil hitting a record high. The market for Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April is at 3.5% YES, a sharp collapse from 62% a week ago. The crude oil market trades $2,513 in daily USDC volume, with a $695 price impact for a 5-point move, meaning liquidity is thin.
Why it matters
An interim deal on the Strait of Hormuz would directly reduce supply disruption risk for roughly 20% of global oil transit. The 1.1% odds on a crude oil record by April 30 reflect that traders see almost no path to a price spike absent a sudden reversal in negotiations. The sanction relief market’s drop from 62% to 3.5% in one week shows how quickly the perceived likelihood of a broader deal has evaporated.
What to watch
Watch for formal statements from the US or Iran confirming deal terms, particularly around sanctions relief or strategic concessions. Any breakdown in talks or new military posturing in the Persian Gulf could reverse the current trajectory. A confirmed agreement would likely push the crude oil all-time high odds even closer to zero.
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Crude Oil All Time High April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 13% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 3.5% | — | — | Trade → |