Iran shot down a Chinese-made drone over Shiraz and claimed an attack on a cloud center in Bahrain. The odds of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 now sit at 10% YES, down from 12% yesterday and 22% a week ago.
The declining odds for the Iranian regime fall by June 30 suggest perceived regime stability. Iran’s military actions, such as downing drones and targeting US allies, indicate control rather than chaos. The market for March 31 remains inactive with 363 days left.
Iran’s ability to strike back and down drones over its airspace shows control. The combined 24-hour volume for regime fall markets is $1,128,762, with $124,433 in actual USDC traded. It takes $26,300 to move the market five points, indicating strong market depth. The largest single-day move was a modest 1-point drop, showing steady sentiment.
This news supports the view that the Iranian regime is not close to collapse. Shooting down a foreign drone and targeting tech infrastructure shows a strong military strategy. A YES share at 10¢ pays $1 if the regime falls by June 30 — a 10x payout. Current market sentiment doesn’t support imminent regime destabilization.
Watch for Iranian domestic political shifts, like Mojtaba Khamenei’s visibility or moves by the Assembly of Experts. External factors like UN Security Council actions regarding Bahrain could also affect market dynamics.
Markets Impacted
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? — currently 10.5% YES
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