Iran’s Supreme National Security Council met to address fears of renewed protests. The Iran military action market for a strike by April 30 sits at 100% YES, but the SNSC’s focus on internal threats suggests a possible shift in regime priorities.
The meeting points to a decreased likelihood of imminent military strikes, yet the market remains locked at 100% YES. The SNSC’s pivot to domestic unrest isn’t moving military action odds, possibly because traders see no actionable new intelligence or immediate military de-escalation signals.
The Reza Pahlavi entry market shows a slight decrease to 5.5% YES for June 30 and 14.5% YES for December 31. The SNSC’s focus on maintaining internal security suggests a tighter regime hold, making Pahlavi’s entry less probable in the near term.
Liquidity in the Pahlavi market is moderate, with $4,083 in actual USDC traded daily. It takes $7,632 to move the price 5 points, which shows some resistance to small trades but leaves the market open to larger orders. The gap between the June 30 and December 31 contracts suggests traders expect any potential catalyst to come later in the year.
The SNSC meeting matters because it reveals a regime splitting attention between internal dissent and external military commitments during active war tensions. At current prices, a YES share in the Pahlavi market offers a 18x return if he enters Iran by June 30. For that bet to make sense, you’d need to believe in significant regime weakening within 67 days.
Watch for shifts in Iranian state media messaging or changes in the SNSC’s public stance, as these could signal regime confidence or fragility. Also monitor any reports of unrest escalating beyond current containment efforts.
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Iran Military Action Against April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 5.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 14.5% | — | — | Trade → |
