Iran seized two container ships near the Strait of Hormuz, and the Polymarket contract on UK warships passing through the Strait by April 30 sits at 2% YES, down from 10% yesterday.
Traders are watching the Strait of Hormuz Traffic market, which resolves on whether traffic normalizes by the end of May. With 38 days left, the ship seizures point toward continued disruption rather than de-escalation. The warship market at 2% YES prices in very low probability of a UK military response before the deadline, though thin liquidity means the contract could move fast on any news.
The warship market dropped 2 points yesterday at 5:59 PM, from 8% to 5%. Actual USDC trading volume is $917/day, and $200 is enough to move the price 5 points, so the contract is sensitive to even moderate orders.
The seizures matter because they affect shipping through the strait, which carries roughly a fifth of global oil supply. At 2¢ YES, a share pays $1 if UK warships transit by April 30, a 50x return. That pricing says traders overwhelmingly expect no UK naval deployment before the contract expires.
Watch for UK Ministry of Defence statements or naval deployment orders. An announcement of frigate transits could reprice the contract quickly.
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