Iran’s foreign ministry stated that removing nuclear reserves was never a negotiation option. Odds for no US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 sit at 1.5%, up from 2% yesterday.
The statement moved the US-Iran Diplomatic Meeting Locations market by 2 points, with traders pricing in lower chances of a meeting by June 30. With 73 days left, actual USDC volume is roughly $400/day, which means it takes just $462 to move the market five points.
The Trump Iran Demands (April) market is at 48% YES, down from 62% a day ago. Traders are growing skeptical that Trump will agree to lifting oil sanctions by month’s end. With 12 days left, actual USDC volume is $5,933/day, roughly 15x the diplomatic meeting market’s daily flow.
Iran’s position on nuclear reserves creates a concrete problem for anyone betting on a diplomatic deal. The statement defends Iran’s enrichment rights and signals a deadlock. At 48¢, a YES share on Trump agreeing to demands pays $1 if it resolves, a potential 2x-plus return, but that requires a sudden diplomatic shift within 12 days.
Watch for US or Iranian government announcements on new talks or sanctions. The next major signal could come from Vice President Vance or Iranian officials scheduling new negotiations or changing their stated positions.
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Where Will The Next Us Iran Diplomatic Meeting Happen 455| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 1.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 36% | — | — | Trade → |
