Iran has ruled out a direct meeting with the US in Pakistan, as envoys Witkoff and Kushner prepare for talks in Islamabad. The likelihood of a diplomatic meeting between the US and Iran on April 24 now sits at 0.4% YES, down from 1% yesterday.
Market reaction
Traders pushed the odds for a US-Iran meeting on April 26 up to 21.8% YES after Iran’s announcement. The largest move in the last 24 hours was a 19-point drop at 3:54 PM, suggesting traders expect any meeting to come later than initially thought.
The April 25 market is at 5.8% YES, while the April 30 market for Trump having a diplomatic meeting with Iran sits at 1.9% YES. With only six days left, the probability of a direct meeting remains slim.
Why it matters
The US-Iran diplomatic meeting dates market has a daily trading face value of $31,300, but actual dollars spent is just $1,042. It takes only $70 to move the April 24 odds by 5 points, meaning thin liquidity makes the market easily swayed by minor trades. The largest recent move was a three-point drop, showing how sensitive pricing is to new information.
Iran’s refusal of direct talks leaves only indirect mediation as a path forward. A YES share at 2¢ pays $1 if Trump meets with Iran by April 30, a 50x return, though the probability is low.
What to watch
Any announcements from Islamabad or Tehran could move these markets quickly. Watch specifically for updates from Vice President JD Vance’s team, as he’s on standby for rapid deployment. Changes in Iran’s diplomatic stance or US envoy movements would be the most direct catalysts.
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Next Us X Iran Diplomatic Meeting On| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 24 | 0.3% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 25 | 4.7% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 26 | 21.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 7.3% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.9% | — | — | Trade → |
