Iran has reopened commercial flights from Tehran’s airport for the first time since US-Israel strikes two months ago. The Polymarket contract on the Iranian regime falling by April 30 now trades at 0.4%.
Traders read the flight resumption as a stabilization signal. The April 30 market shows a 0.4% chance of regime change, down from 1% a day ago. The May 31 contract is at 3.7%, down from 5% over the same period. The June 30 market sits at 8.5%, showing a modest increase further out on the term structure.
The June market has $35,587 in daily USDC volume. It takes $16,830 to move the odds by 5 points, which points to institutional-sized positioning. The largest price move in the last day was a 1-point shift.
Reopening Tehran’s airport means the regime has enough operational control to resume commercial aviation, which pushes against near-term collapse scenarios. A YES share for the regime falling by June 30 trades at 8.5¢, offering a 11.8x return. For that bet to pay off, you’d need to expect major destabilizing events in the coming months: leadership defections, mass protests, or a second round of strikes.
Watch for high-profile defections or moves by the Assembly of Experts. Regional tensions remain high, but absent further military escalation, regime-collapse odds are likely to keep falling.
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Will The Iranian Regime Fall June 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 8.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 3.7% | — | — | Trade → |
