## Market Snapshot US-Iran Ceasefire market currently shows a 0.1% YES probability, down from 1% 24 hours ago and 6% a week ago. The market remains open, reflecting ongoing diplomatic discussions, with significant volume of $592,335 in face value.
## Key Takeaways – Iran’s response to US amendments appears to indicate ongoing diplomatic engagement, suggesting progress towards a ceasefire. – Market pricing suggests that participants view the diplomatic activity as consistent with a potential reduction in hostilities. – The current ceasefire, initially set to expire on April 22, remains in effect, indicating a potential extension and further negotiations.
## Article Body Iran has officially responded to the latest US amendments concerning a diplomatic agreement, according to a report by Axios. This development occurs in the context of an ongoing two-week ceasefire in the US-Iran conflict, which began in early 2026. The ceasefire, initially set to expire on April 22, has remained in effect into May amid continued low-level hostilities and mutual accusations of violations. The diplomatic engagement is centered around critical issues such as sanctions relief and access to the Strait of Hormuz. Both US and Iranian forces are reportedly on high alert, but the current negotiations suggest a preference for diplomatic solutions over escalation.
## Market Interpretation The market reaction to Iran’s response suggests a moderate impact, consistent with supportive conditions for a YES outcome in the US-Iran Ceasefire market. The diplomatic exchanges between the US and Iran, while not conclusive, are seen as positive indicators of potential progress. The impact is categorized as Moderate, reflecting the ongoing uncertainty amid diplomatic engagement.
## What to Watch Observers should monitor any announcements from US or Iranian leadership regarding the extension of the ceasefire or new diplomatic initiatives. Key figures include US Secretary of State Rubio, Iranian leadership, and intermediaries from Oman and Qatar. Any significant changes in military posture or rhetoric could influence market perceptions. The continuation of negotiations and the role of intermediaries will be crucial in shaping future developments.
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Trump Announces End Of Military Operations Against Iran| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.1% | — | — | View market → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1 | 99.9% | — | — | View market → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.1% | — | — | View market → |
| May 31 | 14.5% | — | — | View market → |
