Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz is “completely open” for commercial traffic, indicating a de-escalation in tensions. Crude Oil hitting $90 by June sits at 0% YES, reflecting the potential easing of supply constraints.
The announcement has traders reassessing the likelihood of sustained high oil prices. With 75 days left until the market’s resolution, the June 30 sub-market shows a clear decrease in odds for crude oil surpassing $90. If the reopening holds, it would reduce some of the supply disruptions that have driven prices up.
The Bitcoin market for April 18 tells a different story, sitting at 99.9% YES. Reduced geopolitical risk may be feeding confidence in Bitcoin surpassing $62,000. With only two days left, traders are betting on continued upward movement.
However, actual shipping data suggests a lag in implementation. Current transit remains minimal, with only selective passage for Iran’s exports to specific countries. This gap between announcement and reality means traders should be cautious about fully pricing in a resolution.
The crude oil market shows no trades in the last 24 hours, a sign of skepticism about the announcement’s real impact. The Bitcoin market, by contrast, saw $356,534 in USDC traded, with depth that suggests strong conviction in the price crossing $62,000.
For crude oil, at 0¢, a YES share pays $1 if prices hit $90 by June, effectively a dead bet without a major geopolitical shift. For Bitcoin, any further positive de-escalation news could reinforce the market’s bullish position.
Watch for official shipping data updates or statements from Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud and Alexander Novak. Either could validate or contradict Iran’s announcement and move trader sentiment.
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Spx Opens Up Or Down On April 15 2026| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 15 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 18 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
