Iran has rejected U.S. demands and refused to meet with American officials in Islamabad. The odds of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire by April 7 have plummeted to 1.1% YES, down from 2% just 24 hours ago and 12% a week ago.
Iran’s rejection has hit the markets hard, especially short-term ones. April 7 saw a 0.9 percentage point drop, nearly flatlining with only 4 days left. April 15 and April 30 odds are down to 6.5% and 17.5% YES, respectively. April 30’s odds fell from 24% a day ago, showing trader pessimism about any diplomatic breakthrough soon.
The market for April 7 sees USDC trading volume at $22,948, with $12,367 needed to shift the price 5 points. A 2-point spike in the April 30 market, likely from a large order, was short-lived.
Iran’s firm stance dims hopes for a quick resolution. With entrenched positions and public refusals, a ceasefire seems unlikely soon. A YES share for April 7 at 1.1% would pay $1 if a ceasefire is declared, offering a 90x return. But a rapid diplomatic turnaround seems improbable amid current tensions.
Watch for any changes in rhetoric or unexpected diplomatic moves, especially from intermediaries like Oman or Qatar. A sudden shift from key figures like Trump or IRGC leadership would be significant.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES
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Add us on Google Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information, see our Editorial Policy. Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 7 | 1.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 15 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 17.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 36.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 51.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 68.5% | — | — | Trade → |
