Iranian lawmaker Mahmoud Nabavian has dismissed demands for a role in managing the Strait of Hormuz and a 20-year halt to uranium enrichment. The Iran uranium enrichment agreement market has dropped to 2% YES, down from 6% just 24 hours ago and 50% a week ago.
The market’s face value is $88,913 daily, with actual USDC trading at $4,778. The order book is thin enough that $2,529 can shift the price by 5 points, making it susceptible to large trades. The Trump Iran demands market, which tracks the likelihood of Trump agreeing to Iranian demands including oil sanction relief, is at 7% YES, down from 14% a day ago.
Nabavian’s rejection matters because it signals Iran is not moving toward concessions on either the Strait of Hormuz or enrichment. With only six days left until the market resolves, the window for a diplomatic agreement is nearly closed. A YES share priced at 2¢ offers a potential 50x return, but few traders are buying, which tracks with the broader collapse in deal expectations across both markets.
Watch for announcements from the IAEA or further statements from Iranian officials that might indicate a shift in negotiations. The next meaningful signal would be any indication of progress in Islamabad talks, should they occur.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
Iran Agrees To End Enrichment Of Uranium April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 2.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
