The downing of U.S. military aircraft by Iranian forces marks a costly turn in Operation Epic Fury. The odds of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 sit at 13.5% YES, down from 20% a week ago.
The Iranian regime fall market shows a bearish outlook. The downed aircraft highlight Iran’s robust air defenses. The June 30 sub-market, 88 days away, rose slightly from 12% to 13.5% in the last 24 hours but remains below last week’s levels. Traders are reassessing the regime’s stability amid these military setbacks.
This market trades $59,602 in USDC daily, with $195,747 needed to shift the price 5 points. The largest movement was a modest 1-point spike, indicating cautious trading and broader uncertainty about Iran’s future.
These losses challenge the narrative of a crumbling Iranian regime. Despite President Trump’s assertions, Iran’s effective air defense suggests a regime still capable of military resistance. For traders betting on a regime fall by June 30 at 13.5¢ per YES share, a payout of $1 is possible — a 7.4x return. However, this bet assumes significant internal disruption or further military degradation within 88 days.
Watch for signs of IRGC command changes or unusual Assembly of Experts activity. These could shift the odds. Any consolidation of power by Mojtaba Khamenei or intensified Iranian military operations would likely drive the odds lower.
Markets Impacted
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? — currently 13.5% YES
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