President Masoud Pezeshkian declared Iran’s refusal to engage in talks while under pressure or blockade. Odds for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30 have dropped to 2% YES, down from 50% a week ago.
The market for Iran ending uranium enrichment by April 30 has collapsed. With six days left until resolution, Pezeshkian’s hardline stance reinforces the deadlock. Odds fell from 6% to 2% over 24 hours, with traders pricing in near-zero probability of a diplomatic breakthrough before the deadline.
The market on whether Trump will agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by April has also fallen to 6% YES, from 14% yesterday and 62% a week ago. Pezeshkian’s firm rejection of talks under pressure has traders betting against any resolution by April’s end. That market sees $1,944 in daily USDC volume, with an order book thin enough to allow easy price manipulation.
The uranium enrichment market has $4,778 in daily USDC volume, with $2,529 needed to move the price 5 points, indicating moderate liquidity. The largest recent price move was a 2-point spike, suggesting sensitivity to news but also vulnerability to larger trades pushing the price around.
At 2¢, a YES share on the uranium agreement pays 50x, but that outcome requires a dramatic reversal in Iran’s negotiating posture within days. At 6¢, a YES share on Trump agreeing to sanctions relief is similarly a long shot without a sudden change in US-Iran relations.
Watch for statements from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps or changes in US naval operations in the Strait of Hormuz. Either could shift tactical positions and move these markets.
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Iran Agrees To End Enrichment Of Uranium April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.7% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
