Iran’s decision to reclose the Strait of Hormuz and attack vessels has driven the market for 80 ships transiting by April 30 down to 22.5% YES, a drop from 51% just 24 hours ago.
April 30 odds sit at 22.5% YES, down from 51% yesterday. The market for fewer than 20 ships between April 6 and April 12 is at 100% YES, consistent with near-total shutdown of transit.
Daily trading volume is $16,360 in USDC, with $797 needed to move the price by 5 points. The largest move was a 10-point drop at 5:48 PM, showing fast reaction to the reclosure news. That relatively small amount of capital can move the price 5 points, meaning any new development could produce sharp swings.
Traders are pricing in prolonged disruption, with odds pointing to a low probability that shipping returns to normal by month-end. A YES share at 22¢ pays $1 if 80 ships transit by April 30, a 4.5x return. That payout requires swift de-escalation and resumption of shipping before the deadline.
Watch for statements from CENTCOM and any diplomatic moves by Iran or the U.S. Admiral Cooper’s next briefing could shift odds sharply if it signals easing tensions.
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Will Ships Transit The Strait Of Hormuz On Any Day End Of April| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 21.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 12 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 9.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 20% | — | — | Trade → |
