Iran’s military leadership shows no pretense about peace, ready to resume operations. The market for a US-Iran ceasefire ending by April 21 sits at 5.5% YES.
Market reaction
The April 22 permanent peace deal market spiked to 24.5% YES, up from 12% a week ago. The April 30 market jumped to 34.5% YES from 17% a week ago, a doubling in implied probability. The May 31 market climbed to 52.5% YES, consistent with traders pricing in growing risk that the ceasefire collapses and forces a deal or escalation.
Why it matters
Volume analysis shows the May 31 market trades $198,230 daily in actual USDC, with $14,900 needed to move it 5 points. The largest move was a 10-point drop, showing sensitivity to news. The June 30 market is thinner, requiring just $4,528 to move 5 points, which means small orders can cause rapid price swings.
Iran’s readiness to resume hostilities casts doubt on the ceasefire’s durability. The source is tier-3, but consistent with past rhetoric from Iran’s leadership. At 5.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if the ceasefire ends by April 21, a 12.5x return. For that bet to make sense, you’d need to believe in an imminent breakdown before the week ends.
What to watch
Statements from CENTCOM or a shift in rhetoric from Trump or Rubio. Any indication of resumed strikes or new proxy activity, particularly from the Houthis or Hezbollah, could move these markets fast.
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Trump Announces Us X Iran Ceasefire| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21, 2026 | 5.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22 | 24.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 34.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 52.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 66.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2026 | 41.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31, 2026 | 74.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 63.5% | — | — | Trade → |
