Iran has ramped up executions of political prisoners, and the market for the Iranian regime falling by May 31 now sits at 4.3% YES, down from 5% yesterday.
Market reaction
The market for the regime’s fall by June 30 trades at 8.5% YES, up from 8% yesterday. The May 31 market moves $37,360 in actual USDC daily, with $7,057 required to swing the price 5 percentage points. The June 30 market sees $35,587 in actual USDC traded daily, requiring $16,830 to move 5 points, a thicker order book with higher resistance to price shifts.
Why it matters
The executions specifically target people involved in the January protests, and the campaign signals the regime’s willingness to use lethal force to suppress dissent. This is happening during a fragile ceasefire in the ongoing conflict with the US and Israel. The drop in the May 31 market from 5% to 4.3% reflects traders pricing in the regime’s ability to maintain control through repression.
What to watch
A YES share in the May 31 market at current levels pays out 23x if the regime collapses. That bet requires expecting significant internal upheaval within 37 days, a prospect the recent execution wave makes harder to justify. External catalysts that could still shift the market include international diplomatic pressure or unexpected IRGC defections. Watch for announcements from the Assembly of Experts or any change in the IRGC’s public stance.
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Will The Iranian Regime Fall May 31| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 4.3% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 8.5% | — | — | Trade → |
