Iran’s Parliament Civil Commission has moved to impose tolls on Strait of Hormuz passage. The market for fewer than 10 ships transiting between April 13-19 sits at 0.4% YES.
The toll proposal could deter shipping traffic through the strait. The market for fewer than 10 ships transiting by April 19 holds at 0.4% YES. The 80 ships by April 30 market has dropped to 28.0% YES from 51% twenty-four hours ago.
The 80-ship threshold market has turned sharply bearish. The largest single move was a 10-point drop, suggesting traders believe the new tolls could disrupt traffic. Daily USDC volume in this market is at $16,360.
Iran’s toll proposal comes during ongoing US-Iran tensions, with 12 days remaining before the April 30 deadline. At 22.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if 80 ships transit by April 30, a 4.44x return. For that bet to pay off, traders would need to see easing of restrictions or diplomatic progress within the window.
Watch for IRGC announcements on finalized toll protocols and any shifts in US or Iranian naval operations. Admiral Brad Cooper’s updates on US Navy maneuvers in the region could also move these markets.
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How Many Ships Transit The Strait Of Hormuz This Week Apr 13 19| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 19 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 28% | — | — | Trade → |
