## Market Snapshot
The market for “Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?” is currently priced at 2.4% YES, down from 3% 24 hours ago. Meanwhile, “Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?” is priced at 9.5% YES, showing slight stability over the past day.
## Key Takeaways
– Iran’s detailed ceasefire proposal suggests a stabilizing effort could reduce immediate pressures on its regime. – The proposal’s inclusion of Israeli withdrawal demands indicates potential pressure on negotiations. – Acceptance of the proposal remains uncertain, impacting the likelihood of Israeli withdrawal.
## Article Body
Iran has sent a detailed proposal to the United States aiming to end fighting across multiple regions, including Lebanon. The proposal, which was reported by Tasnim News and other networks, outlines demands such as an immediate halt to aggression, Israeli withdrawal, the return of displaced people, the release of prisoners, and reconstruction efforts. This development comes amid a fragile ceasefire mediated by Pakistan, which both the U.S. and Iran have agreed to, although its scope is disputed by Israeli authorities. The Lebanese government has distanced itself from Hezbollah, complicating Iran’s claims to represent Lebanese interests.
## Market Interpretation
The impact of Iran’s proposal on the market appears to suggest moderate changes for related scenarios. The inclusion of Israeli withdrawal demands is consistent with scenarios that could increase support for YES outcomes in the “Israel withdraws from Lebanon” markets. However, the proposal’s acceptance remains uncertain, which may explain the limited current market impact. The development is of moderate impact, given the ongoing negotiations and geopolitical complexities.
## What to Watch
Observers should monitor responses from key actors, including the U.S. and Israeli governments, to gauge the potential acceptance of Iran’s proposal. The stance of Hezbollah and the Lebanese government will be crucial in determining the proposal’s viability. Additionally, any shifts in the U.S. mediation role or statements from Israel regarding withdrawal could influence market pricing in the coming weeks.
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Will The Iranian Regime Fall May 31| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 2.6% | — | — | View market → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | 9.5% | — | — | View market → |
| May 31, 2026 | 2.8% | — | — | View market → |
