Iran has offered to stop attacks in the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for ending the war and lifting the U.S. blockade. The market on whether Trump announces the blockade lifted by May 31, 2026 sits at 59.5% YES, down from 72% yesterday.
Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi delivered the proposal. The Trump Hormuz market has dropped sharply over the past week. Volume is $95,253 in USDC, and it takes $8,975 to move odds 5 points, which means the market is thick enough to resist quick swings on headlines alone.
Iran’s proposal also touches the Iran Diplomatic Meetings market, at 59.5% YES. That market prices the probability of US-Iran talks by May 31. The offer to trade attack cessation for sanctions relief is the most concrete negotiating framework Iran has put forward since the blockade began.
At 60¢, a YES share pays $1 if the blockade ends by May 31, a 1.67x return. That bet requires believing a diplomatic breakthrough happens within 37 days.
Watch for Trump or CENTCOM statements on the blockade. Iranian regional mediator activity or missile launches could move the market fast in either direction.
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