Iran’s Supreme National Security Council states that its war objectives are nearly met, with ongoing negotiations in Islamabad. The odds of a ceasefire by April 15 have jumped to 70.5% YES, up from 14% a day ago.
The market’s confidence shows optimism that talks mediated by Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey could lead to a deal. The April 7 market now sits at 57% YES, a leap from 8% seven days ago, though the deadline has passed. The April 30 market is at 72.5% YES, up from 36% a week prior. These increases suggest traders expect a diplomatic breakthrough soon.
Volume highlights the activity. The April 15 market saw $956,186 in USDC traded, driven by a 24-point spike at 10:34 PM from 67% to 90%. The April 7 market experienced a 42-point jump at 10:33 PM, indicating heightened trader activity as deadlines approached.
With Iran signaling near-achievement of its goals and ongoing talks, traders are betting on a diplomatic resolution. A YES share for April 15 pays $1 at 70¢, a 1.43x return. This assumes talks will lead to a formal ceasefire within eight days. However, any breakdown in negotiations could reverse current optimism.
Watch for statements from Pakistan, Egypt, or Turkey confirming progress or proposals. Aggressive military action or strong rhetoric from the US or Iran could dampen market optimism.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 7 | 57% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 15 | 70.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 72.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 86% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 87% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 93.9% | — | — | Trade → |
