Iran-linked ships attempted to challenge Trump’s naval blockade, with all efforts stopped by the U.S. military. The market for a US-Iran ceasefire breach by April 21 is at 18% YES, up from 8% a day ago.
The odds for a ceasefire breach by April 21 jumped 10 points after the blockade test, with traders pricing in possible escalation. Three days remain on this contract, and the sharp move signals that the attempted breach changed how bettors assess the risk of a broader confrontation.
The blockade’s hold has also shifted expectations for its lifting. Odds for the blockade being lifted by May 31 dropped to 85% YES, down from 90% yesterday. The failed breach apparently made traders less confident about a near-term diplomatic resolution.
The ceasefire market’s daily volume is $3,485 in actual USDC traded, with $498 in order book depth to move odds by 5 points. The largest recent price move was a 3-point spike following the news. The market is thin and susceptible to small trades moving the price significantly.
A YES share in the ceasefire breach market at 18¢ pays $1 if resolved, a potential 5.5x return. That bet requires believing escalation happens within three days. The blockade holding firm suggests the U.S. is committed to containment, which could either deter Iran or provoke a more aggressive response.
Watch for official Pentagon statements or changes in U.S. or Iranian naval movements. Trump posts on Truth Social or a White House press release could also move these contracts quickly.
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Trump Announces Us X Iran Ceasefire Broken| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 17.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 85% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 19 | 8% | — | — | Trade → |
