Axios reports internal disagreement within Iran’s leadership on Trump’s uranium demands. The market for a US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 sits at 2.6% YES, down from 7% yesterday.
Related markets have moved in the same direction. Odds for Iran surrendering its enriched uranium stockpile by April 30 are at 2.2% YES, down from 6% yesterday. With only 6 days until resolution, traders are pricing in very little chance of a quick agreement. The market for surrender by June 30 shows higher odds at 26.0%, suggesting traders see a possible deal in the coming months but not this week.
The nuclear deal by April 30 market has $7,699 in actual USDC traded, with only $1,550 required to move the price 5 points. That thin order book means even small trades can cause large price swings. The uranium stockpile April 30 contract has more liquidity at $10,723 actual USDC traded.
The lack of consensus within Iran’s leadership makes reaching a deal by April 30 less likely. At 3¢, a YES bet pays $1 if it resolves positively, a potential 33x return, but that requires dramatic diplomatic progress in 6 days. The uranium stockpile surrender market reflects similar skepticism at 2¢.
Watch for shifts in rhetoric from Iranian leadership or statements from US negotiators. Trump’s next public comments and any developments from mediators like Pakistan could move these markets.
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Us Iran Nuclear Deal April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 2.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 2.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 40.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 26% | — | — | Trade → |
