Iran has launched 8,695 missiles and drones across eight countries since the war began, with the UAE absorbing the most at 2,819 attacks. The market for Iran striking Israel by April 30 sits at 100% YES, already resolved by ongoing hostilities. The UK military action against Iran by April 30 market is at 2% YES, and Gulf state military action against Iran has fallen to 7.5%, down from 16% a week ago.
Iran’s heavy targeting of the UAE and other Gulf states would seem to raise the chance of retaliation, but traders are pricing in limited immediate military action from those countries. The Gulf state military action market has $7,032 in 24-hour face value volume, with $540 in actual USDC traded. Moving the odds by 5 percentage points would require $1,238, which means the market is stable and unlikely to shift on small trades.
The scale of Iranian attacks, nearly 9,000 missiles and drones, has not pushed the probability of immediate counterstrikes beyond existing expectations. At a trading price of 7.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if a Gulf state acts by April 30, a 13.33x return. For that bet to pay off, significant military developments would need to happen in the next 10 days.
Watch for announcements of military action from Gulf state leaders or CENTCOM statements on regional escalation. Either would likely move these markets.
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Iran Military Action Against April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 7.5% | — | — | Trade → |
