Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi announced the Strait of Hormuz will stay open as the US completed its withdrawal from most military bases in Syria. The market for Trump announcing the end of military operations against Iran by March 1 is at 0% YES.
Market reaction
The open Strait of Hormuz points to easing tensions, directly relevant to the Trump military operations market. No face-value trades are visible, meaning traders aren’t rushing to adjust positions. The Kharg Island oil terminal attack market dropped to 6% YES, down from 8% twenty-four hours ago.
Why it matters
Odds for crude oil hitting $90 by end of June could fall too. An open Strait reduces supply disruption risk, which lowers the probability of oil price spikes. Trading volume remains thin, suggesting traders aren’t reacting strongly to today’s news.
What to watch
This is a shift, not noise. The source is tier 3, which warrants caution, but the operational and geopolitical implications are straightforward. A YES share at 6¢ for Kharg Island pays $1 if an attack happens by April 30, a 16.67x return. Betting YES now means betting on a sudden escalation that nothing in today’s developments supports.
Watch for Trump’s next statement or CENTCOM operational updates. Changes in rhetoric or military posture could move these markets quickly.
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