Iran’s internet shutdown has reached 60 days, compounding economic and social disruption. The market for the Iranian regime falling by June 30 sits at 7.5% YES, slightly down from 8% a day ago.
The blackout, part of the US-Israel-Iran conflict, points to deepening instability. Trader sentiment has barely moved, with odds for regime fall by June 30 holding steady over the past week. Iran’s digital isolation and daily economic losses between $30 million and $80 million have not shifted the prediction market.
The market has $127,150 in face value traded over the last 24 hours, with actual USDC volume at $11,723. The order book requires $220,844 to move the odds by 5 percentage points, a relatively thick market. The largest recent move was a 43-point spike to 50% at 11:40 AM, showing that while the market is generally stable, sharp moves can happen.
Traders appear cautious about overreacting to the blackout. The market’s stability suggests participants are waiting for more concrete signals of regime change, such as leadership shifts or major defections. At 7.5¢, a YES bet pays $1 if the regime falls by June 30, a 13.3x return. That pricing reflects a long-shot bet unless significant internal fractures appear.
Watch for reports of IRGC infighting or mass protests in major cities, as these could move the market sharply. Leadership changes or defections, particularly involving Mojtaba Khamenei, would be the most likely triggers for repricing.
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