A senior Iranian official told Reuters that a preliminary ceasefire deal might be reached in the coming days. Ceasefire end by April 21 sits at 8% YES.
Market reaction
The ceasefire extension market moved sharply. April 30 is now at 55.5% YES, up from 17% a week ago. May 31 jumped to 71% YES. The gap between the April 30 and May 31 contracts is where traders are pricing in the most progress, suggesting they expect a deal to materialize sometime in May rather than late April.
Why it matters
USDC volume on the ceasefire market hit $699K, with enough liquidity that it takes $18,640 to move the April 30 odds by 5 points. That depth makes the price signal more reliable than thin markets where a single whale can distort odds. The largest single move was a 4-point drop at 4:44 PM, consistent with profit-taking or hedging against renewed hostilities.
What to watch
The Iranian official’s comments are a de-escalation signal but not a firm commitment. At 8¢, a YES share on ceasefire ending by April 21 pays 12.5x. Betting on extension implies confidence in continued diplomatic progress, potentially tied to the ongoing Islamabad talks. Weekend negotiations and any announcements from intermediaries like Oman or Qatar could move these contracts quickly in either direction.
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Iran Leadership Change| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 29.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 3.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 9.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22 | 37.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 55.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 71% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 81.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 2.4% | — | — | Trade → |
