Iran has halted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz amid rising tensions. The likelihood of fewer than 10 ships transiting the strait by April 19 is now at 0.4% YES, up from 0% yesterday.
Today’s complete stoppage is pushing related markets. The US escorts through Hormuz by April 30 market sits at 16% YES, up from 18% just 24 hours ago. The fewer than 10 ships transit market reflects a sharp shift in sentiment, though actual trading volume remains low at $14 USDC.
The escort market has $8,310 in USDC traded, with $260 in order book depth to move prices 5 points. That’s modest liquidity but a market that moves fast on new information. Zero tanker traffic today is a clear escalation from the baseline of normal strait operations.
For traders, the absence of tankers raises the stakes on US intervention. A YES share in the escort market at 16¢ pays $1 if the US Navy escorts a ship by April 30, a 4.5x return. Betting on fewer than 10 ships transiting looks unlikely but pays off if the blockade persists and military actions escalate.
Watch for CENTCOM updates and Pentagon announcements on the blockade. Those will directly move these markets in the coming days.
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Us Escorts Commercial Ship Through Hormuz March 31| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 16% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 19 | 0.2% | — | — | Trade → |
