Iran’s Foreign Minister criticized the US in talks with Russia’s Putin, citing “destructive habits” and “unreasonable demands” as barriers to diplomacy. The market for no US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 now trades at 16.7% YES, up from 9% yesterday.
The odds for no meeting by June 30 jumped 7.7 points over the past 24 hours as traders priced in growing skepticism about a diplomatic breakthrough. It took just $167 to move the odds 5 points, which points to thin liquidity and potential volatility.
This market sees $6,837 in daily USDC volume, with a face value of $55,592. A 4-point drop at 5:57 PM signaled a burst of pessimism. The volume is modest, but traders are clearly tracking the diplomatic back-and-forth.
At 17¢, a YES share pays $1 if no meeting occurs by June 30, a 5.88x return. The market still implies an 83% chance that some qualifying meeting happens before the deadline, but that confidence is eroding.
Watch for any announcements from Omani or Qatari mediators, or an unexpected statement from the US State Department. Either could move these odds fast.
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