Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) has announced it will not compromise on national interests during US-Iran ceasefire talks. The market for Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April is at 47.5% YES, down from 62% yesterday.
The SNSC’s hard stance has moved related markets sharply. The Iran uranium enrichment agreement by April 30 market dropped to 25.1% YES, down from 50% just 24 hours ago. Traders are clearly skeptical that Iran will concede on enrichment rights.
The falling odds on Trump agreeing to Iranian demands suggest traders are losing confidence in a quick resolution. The market is thin: only $818 is needed to move the odds five points, meaning a single large order could shift sentiment substantially. The largest price move in the last 24 hours was a 6-point drop, which shows how exposed these markets are to sudden swings.
Iran’s refusal to move on uranium enrichment and Strait of Hormuz control points to difficult negotiations ahead. At 28¢, a YES share in the uranium market pays $1 if Iran ceases enrichment by April 30, a 3.6x return. For that bet to make sense, a trader would need to believe a dramatic shift in talks is coming within the next 12 days.
Watch for any change in messaging from the White House or CENTCOM, and monitor Iran’s state media channels for signs of negotiation flexibility. Movement from either side will reprice these markets quickly.
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What Will The Us Agree To| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 47.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 3.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 25.1% | — | — | Trade → |