## Market Snapshot
Markets regarding the U.S. obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31 are priced at 5.5% YES, down from 6% 24 hours ago. The probability of a nuclear deal by June 30 has decreased to 29.5% YES, reflecting recent developments in negotiations.
## Key Takeaways
– Iran’s proposal excluding uranium removal appears to impact the likelihood of a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal by the end of June. – The market reflects reduced confidence in the U.S. securing Iranian uranium by May 31, suggesting increased obstacles. – Iran’s stance may indicate a continued stalemate in negotiations, affecting the surrender of enriched uranium by year-end.
## Article Body
Iran’s proposal to the United States, as reported by IRGC-affiliated Tasnim, did not include any agreement on removing enriched nuclear material from the country. This development comes amid ongoing tensions following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities earlier this year. A fragile ceasefire was brokered in April, but negotiations have stalled over Iran’s uranium stockpile and the release of its frozen assets. The absence of a commitment to remove uranium from Iran presents a significant challenge to reaching a nuclear agreement, a goal that has been central to U.S. diplomatic efforts. The situation remains tense with U.S. naval blockades and Iran’s demands for time-bound asset releases.
## Market Interpretation
The exclusion of uranium removal from Iran’s proposal is consistent with a NO outcome in markets assessing the likelihood of the U.S. obtaining enriched uranium by May 31. This development is classified as having a high impact, as it significantly complicates the path to a nuclear agreement by June. Markets appear to interpret these actions as indicative of continued negotiation challenges and persistent geopolitical tensions.
## What to Watch
Observers should monitor any new statements from key actors such as U.S. President Donald Trump and Iranian officials for shifts in negotiation dynamics. The role of international mediators, including Pakistan and China, may also influence future talks. Upcoming IAEA reports on Iran’s nuclear activities could provide critical insights into the likelihood of resolving the uranium standoff and achieving broader diplomatic goals.
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Us Obtains Iranian Enriched Uranium| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 5.5% | — | — | View market → |
| December 31 | 27.5% | — | — | View market → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 45.5% | — | — | View market → |
| June 30, 2026 | 18.5% | — | — | View market → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 29.5% | — | — | View market → |
