Iran denied direct talks with the US, frustrating diplomatic efforts in Islamabad. The odds of a US-Iran peace deal by April 30 sit at 9.5% YES, down from 10% yesterday.
Market reaction
The April 30 contract here dropped, while the May 31 contract here is at 34.5%, down from 38%. The June 30 contract here is at 53.5% YES, meaning traders expect a longer timeline. The largest price move was a 6-point spike at 11:14 AM in the April 30 contract, suggesting brief optimism.
Why it matters
Volume at $854,588 in actual USDC across markets, with $27,667 enough to shift the April 30 price by 5 points. The May 31 market is cheaper to move, which points to trader sentiment drifting toward a mid-term resolution window.
Iran’s denial of direct talks, while the US claims discussions are ongoing, leaves a wide gap between the two sides’ public positions. No direct engagement means no near-term breakthrough is priced in. At 10¢, a YES bet on an April peace deal pays $1, a 10x return. But the absence of any confirmed direct channel makes that payout look appropriately long-shot.
What to watch
Any shift in statements from Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi or new tweets from Trump. Either could move short-term odds quickly in either direction.
API access
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
Us X Iran Permanent Peace Deal| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 9.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 34.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 53.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 3.8% | — | — | Trade → |
