Iranian negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf called the US naval blockade “clumsy and ignorant” while reasserting control over the Strait of Hormuz. The market for Trump announcing the end of the Hormuz blockade by May 31 dropped to 82% YES, down from 90% yesterday.
Iran’s closure of the Strait and direct criticism of the US blockade moved related markets. Odds for UK warships passing through the Strait by April 30 fell to 8.5% YES. With the IRGC asserting its presence in the waterway, foreign naval passage looks increasingly unlikely.
The blockade market has traded $29,602 USDC, with the 5-point drop being the largest single move. Order book depth sits at $1,419, enough to absorb routine trading but still vulnerable to large strategic positions.
The blockade’s continuation has traders pricing in extended tensions. The lift by April 19 contract sits at 8% YES, offering a steep payout but requiring a rapid diplomatic breakthrough that current conditions make unlikely.
Watch for US Navy announcements and IRGC activity in the Strait. Any shift in military posture or public statements from Trump could move these markets sharply.
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Which Countries Will Send Warships Through The Strait Of Hormuz April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 8.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | 82% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 19, 2026 | 8.5% | — | — | Trade → |
