Iran is considering a two-week ceasefire proposed by Pakistan. The odds of a ceasefire by April 15 have risen to 21.5% YES, up from 12% yesterday.
Traders see Iran’s review of the proposal as a potential diplomatic breakthrough. The April 15 market reflects this optimism with an 8-day countdown. The April 30 market also climbed to 33.5% YES, up from 26% a day ago. Traders are betting on a catalyst soon.
The jump in April 15 odds suggests traders expect progress. USDC trading volume at $313,756 shows solid interest. It takes $8,964 to move the market by 5 points, indicating moderate depth. The largest move was a 4-point spike at 2:58 PM due to increased buying.
Pakistan’s role as mediator might signal a shift in Iran’s stance. The current YES share price for April 15 is 22¢, offering a 4.5x return if successful. However, Iran’s history of rejecting truces suggests caution.
Watch for US or Iranian official statements confirming talks or intermediaries like Oman or Qatar getting involved. These would be strong signals for traders.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 7 | 5.7% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 15 | 21.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 33.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 49.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 61.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 74.5% | — | — | Trade → |
