The Iran conflict has heightened inflation expectations, according to a Bank of Canada survey. The Polymarket contract for WTI crude oil hitting $160 in April is expected to move up 15%, while gold reaching $8,000 by June could rise 10%.
Increased inflation expectations are pushing traders to reconsider their positions in both oil and gold markets. The WTI Crude Oil Price in April 2026 market is particularly sensitive, as the ongoing conflict has disrupted oil supplies through the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This market has 12 days until resolution. Meanwhile, the Gold Price Predictions by End of June market is seeing a potential safe-haven shift as investors brace for prolonged instability, with 73 days left until it resolves.
Volume is $0 in recent face value trading for both oil and gold contracts. In thin markets like these, small orders can move prices significantly. The WTI market’s expected 15% move reflects direct sensitivity to supply disruption from the Strait of Hormuz closure, while the gold market’s 10% possible uptick tracks investor demand for inflation hedges during the conflict.
The chance of WTI crude oil hitting $160 is gaining traction because supply disruptions continue. A YES share at current odds suggests traders expect prolonged volatility. Gold’s attractiveness as an inflation hedge appears to be strengthening, though more modestly. Odds should adjust as new developments arrive, particularly if the ceasefire collapses or further escalations occur.
Watch President Trump and Iranian leadership for diplomatic signals. JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs could issue forecasts that move sentiment in these markets. Any updates from the EIA or OPEC+ on oil supply adjustments would directly affect the WTI contract’s pricing.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
Related to This Story ▼ US warns Iran infrastructure strikes possible if no nuclear deal reached