Al Jazeera reports a senior Iranian official confirmed no US-Iran talks are planned in Pakistan, pushing the April 24 diplomatic meeting market to 0.5% YES, down from 1% yesterday.
The denial from Iran has shifted trader attention to other dates. The April 25 sub-market holds at 5.2% YES, while April 26 jumped from 9% to 24.6% YES. That 15-point gap between April 25 and April 26 suggests traders expect something mid-week.
The market predicting “no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting by June 30, 2026” dropped to 5.5% YES from 9% yesterday. Volume on this market is $6,837 in daily USDC traded, showing active participation.
The April 24 market is thin: $70 moves the price 5 points. The largest single move in the last 24 hours was a 3-point drop at 11:39 AM, meaning a handful of traders can still swing these odds significantly.
The Pakistan denial may signal a delay or a shift to other negotiation venues. Buying YES at 6¢ on the June 30 market pays $1 if no meeting occurs by then, a 16.7x return. That’s a bet on continued diplomatic standoff or relocation of talks.
Watch for statements from Pakistani or Omani officials about hosting US-Iran talks. Any confirmation of a venue change would move these markets.
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Next Us X Iran Diplomatic Meeting On| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 24 | 0.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 25 | 4.3% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 26 | 23.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | 7% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 7.3% | — | — | Trade → |
