Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi criticized the U.S. for “unlawful conduct,” and odds for no US-Iran meeting by June 30, 2026, have risen to 3.7% YES from 2% yesterday.
Araqchi’s statement prompted a market shift. Diplomatic meeting odds now price in a greater chance of no talks by end of June, with most of the move occurring in the last 24 hours. Separately, the probability of Iran agreeing to surrender its enriched uranium by April 30, 2026, dropped to 28.7% YES from 65% yesterday, a sharp decline in confidence on a near-term nuclear agreement.
The diplomatic meeting market trades at $400/day in actual USDC, while the uranium surrender market sees $138,687/day. A 12-point drop in the uranium surrender market at 10:27 AM points to significant repositioning by traders.
Araqchi’s remarks came alongside a joint Iran-Russia condemnation of U.S. actions, reinforcing the diplomatic impasse. A YES share for no US-Iran meeting by June 30 at 3.7¢ pays $1 if it resolves, a 27x return. That bet requires continued diplomatic stalling through mid-2026.
Watch for any shift in tone from Iran or the U.S. through official channels or back-channel contacts via Pakistan. Changes in rhetoric from either side would move these odds quickly.
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Bank Of Japan Decision In April| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 2026 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 2.7% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 28.7% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 63% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 45.5% | — | — | Trade → |