Iran-backed Iraqi militias have launched dozens of explosive drones at Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states over the past five weeks. The market on military action against Iran ending by April 1, 2026, is at 100% YES, unchanged from a week ago.
Market reaction
The market on whether Iran will strike Israel by April 30, 2026, is at 100% YES given ongoing hostilities. Gulf state military action against Iran by April 30 sits at 8% YES, down from 16% a week ago. The proxy attacks continue despite a ceasefire, and traders are pricing in little chance of resolution before April.
Why it matters
Face value on the military action against Iran market is $162,379/day, with actual USDC traded at $21,279/day. It costs $511 to move the odds 5 points. The largest single move was a 7-point spike at 4:54 PM, showing that sentiment can shift fast on new developments.
What to watch
The drone campaign represents persistent low-intensity conflict, and Gulf states have so far maintained a defensive posture. The contrarian bet here is on a Gulf state response. A YES share at 8¢ pays $1 if a Gulf state acts by April 30, a 12.5x return. That bet requires confidence that Gulf states will abandon their hedging strategy.
Specific triggers: statements from CENTCOM or Saudi military actions. Any shift from defensive measures to active engagement would move the Gulf state military market hard.
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Trump Announces Us X Iran Ceasefire| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 10 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 21 | 4.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 15 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 12 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 3.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 8% | — | — | Trade → |
