Mohsen Rezaee, a military adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader, has called for an end to the ceasefire with the US. The market for US-Iran ceasefire ending by April 21 is at 10.5% YES.
Rezaee’s statement is pushing traders to reconsider the likelihood of the ceasefire holding. The April 21 market dropped from 36% a week ago to its current level. Meanwhile, odds of a permanent peace deal by April 30 are at 38.5%, up from 19% a week ago. The combination suggests traders doubt the ceasefire will collapse on a short timeline but are pricing in a longer-term resolution.
The ceasefire market trades $7,981 in USDC daily, with order book depth of $1,677 to move the price 5 points. The largest price move in the last 24 hours was a 2-point spike, meaning the market has some liquidity but remains thin enough for single trades to move the price.
Rezaee’s hawkish rhetoric could signal a real shift in Iran’s stance, given his influence within the regime. A YES share in the April 21 ceasefire end market at 11¢ pays $1 if the ceasefire ends, a 9.1x return. That bet requires believing hardliner positions will dominate within the next five days.
Watch for official responses from CENTCOM or statements from US envoys like Steve Witkoff. Any confirmation of Rezaee’s stance from higher Iranian authorities would likely push the market toward YES.
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Trump Announces Us X Iran Ceasefire| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 15, 2026 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 10.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22 | 22.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 38.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 58.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 71.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2026 | 29.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31, 2026 | 61.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 49.5% | — | — | Trade → |
