Iran accused the US of violating the ceasefire with a port blockade. The market for a ceasefire breach by April 21 jumped to 99.7% YES, up from 8% yesterday.
The three-point spike hit at 11:12 AM. At 17.5%, traders are pricing in a real but not dominant chance of a breach announcement before the ceasefire expires in three days.
The likelihood of Trump announcing the lifting of the Strait of Hormuz blockade by May 31 dropped to 78% YES from 90% the previous day. Iran’s foreign ministry statement pushed traders to reassess the timeline for resolution, pricing in the possibility that tensions escalate rather than cool.
The market for a blockade lift by April 19 sits at just 2.8% YES, given the ongoing blockade and Iran’s accusations.
Volume across these markets is $29,602 in USDC over the last 24 hours. But the order book on the ceasefire breach contract is thin: $498 can move the odds five points, meaning single trades can cause large swings.
A YES share on ceasefire breach by April 21 costs 99.7¢, offering a 5.7x potential return. The question for traders is whether Iran’s accusation leads to a formal breach announcement or stays at the level of rhetoric. Watch for statements from the White House, the Pentagon, and any diplomatic moves from Pakistan.
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Trump Announces Us X Iran Ceasefire Broken| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 99.7% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 78.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 19 | 2.8% | — | — | Trade → |
