The International Maritime Organization is working on an evacuation plan for hundreds of ships stuck in the Persian Gulf, a development that has nudged the market for fewer than 10 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-19 to 0.1% YES, up from 0% yesterday.
The April 13-19 market has seen only $2 in USDC traded over the past 24 hours. Face value sits at $1,150, but the order book is thin enough that $11 could move the market 5 percentage points. Any meaningful order would shift the odds fast.
The IMO’s plan aims to establish a humanitarian corridor that would let trapped vessels transit without military escorts. Whether this changes the current odds depends on the U.S. and Iran agreeing to the arrangement. Traders appear to be waiting for concrete signs of that cooperation before committing capital.
With the April 13-19 market at 0.1% YES, a YES share priced at 0.1¢ pays $1 if fewer than 10 ships transit by April 19. For that bet to make sense, you’d need to believe the corridor will be agreed upon and effectively implemented within the week.
Watch for official statements from U.S. Central Command or Iran’s Revolutionary Guard endorsing or rejecting the IMO plan. Any confirmation of unrestricted transit could move the odds sharply.
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How Many Ships Transit The Strait Of Hormuz This Week Apr 6 12| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 12 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 19 | 0.5% | — | — | Trade → |
