Hungary’s incoming PM, Péter Magyar, stated that Benjamin Netanyahu would be arrested if he visits the country, in line with an ICC arrest warrant. The Polymarket contract for Netanyahu out by June 30 sits at 6% YES.
The June 30 sub-market ticked up from 6% to 6% YES over the past 24 hours. The April 30 contract remains at 0.5% YES. The 6-point gap between April and June suggests traders expect any diplomatic fallout to materialize after April but before June.
Combined 24-hour volume across these markets is $1,182 USDC — thin but not zero. Price movement in the last 24 hours was minimal, and it takes $7,275 to move the June market by 5 points, which points to moderate but real interest.
Hungary’s potential re-entry into the ICC would create legal obligations to enforce the Netanyahu arrest warrant, restricting his international travel further. At 6¢, a YES share pays $1 if Netanyahu is out by June 30, a 16.67x return. For that bet to pay off, you’d need to believe a significant political event forces his hand within 71 days.
Watch Netanyahu’s diplomatic calendar and whether Magyar follows through on ICC accession. If other EU nations voice support for enforcement, the odds could move fast.
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Netanyahu Out Before 2027| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 0.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
