The House Ethics Committee has called for information on sexual misconduct following the resignations of Reps. Eric Swalwell and Tony Gonzales. The market for Eric Swalwell’s status by May 31 now sits at 100% YES, fully resolved.
Market reaction
Swalwell’s confirmed resignation resolves the market question as a YES outcome. The market for Tony Gonzales out as US Representative is expected to resolve the same way, since his resignation is also confirmed. The Epstein client list market is unaffected, sitting at 7.8% YES, as the congressional resignations and ethics investigations have no connection to that question.
Why it matters
No volume was recorded in the Swalwell and Gonzales markets, meaning both resolved without recent trading activity. The Epstein client list market has $1,883 in daily USDC traded, showing moderate interest independent of these congressional developments.
What to watch
The Ethics Committee’s move comes after failed attempts to increase transparency in ethics records. Further announcements from the committee or congressional leadership could affect related markets or signal additional resignations.
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Eric Swalwell Out As Us Rep May 31| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 8.4% | — | — | Trade → |
