The House Ethics Committee has released a list of congressional misconduct investigations that includes Reps. Eric Swalwell and Tony Gonzales. The market on Eric Swalwell out as US Rep by May 31 sits at 100% YES.
The committee’s disclosure matches what the market already priced in. Swalwell’s May 31 market has been at 100% YES, meaning traders treated his departure as a certainty before this announcement. Tony Gonzales is also named in the committee’s findings, though no corresponding market data is available here.
Trading volume on the Swalwell market is effectively zero, which is consistent with a contract that traders consider settled. There is no active price discovery left; the market treats his exit as a foregone conclusion.
For traders, this news is confirmation rather than new information. Swalwell’s contract at 100% YES leaves no margin for a different outcome short of something completely unexpected. Gonzales’ situation may follow a similar path given the parallel nature of the allegations and the recent pattern of resignations tied to misconduct investigations, but without market data on his contract, that remains an open question.
Watch for official announcements from the House or public statements from either representative. These are the remaining events that would formally close out the Swalwell contract and clarify Gonzales’ trajectory.
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Eric Swalwell Out As Us Rep May 31| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 8.8% | — | — | Trade → |
