Hilbert Group’s CIO is warning that global liquidity tightening is putting pressure on Bitcoin, with near-term declines possible. The probability for Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 by April 30 sits at 100% YES, unchanged from a week ago.
Market reaction
Markets remain steady across multiple dates. Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in April shows consistent confidence: April 14, 15, 16, and beyond all reflect 100% YES. Traders aren’t backing away from these thresholds.
With $8,786 in real USDC traded daily, the market is active but not driven by large trades. Order book depth remains unclear, but the absence of significant price jumps suggests a balanced market. The largest recent move was a 1% shift last week.
Why it matters
At 100% YES, a YES share pays just 1¢, making this a bet on stability rather than volatility. The liquidity warning could be short-term noise, especially with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East affecting energy prices and inflation. But if Hilbert’s forecast holds, Bitcoin’s path to higher prices may be slower than previously expected.
What to watch
Central bank policy shifts, particularly from the Federal Reserve, and Middle East geopolitical developments could quickly change Bitcoin’s trajectory. Either factor could move these markets off their current 100% readings.
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Bitcoin Price On April 15| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 15 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 14 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 16 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 19 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 17 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 20 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 18 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 14 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
