China’s Hengli Petrochemical has denied any trade with Iran following U.S. sanctions. The market for a US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 now sits at 2.9% YES, down from 7% a day ago.
Hengli’s denial suggests tightening economic constraints on Iran. The sanctions target Iran’s oil trade, a major revenue source for its military. With only 6 days left, the US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 contract has collapsed from 68% a week ago.
In the Iran surrender of enriched uranium stockpile market, YES shares for April 30 have fallen to 2.4%, down from 6% yesterday. The December 31 contract remains at 40% YES, showing traders expect any movement well beyond April.
These markets are trading $7,699 and $10,723 in USDC daily, respectively. The cost to move either market 5 percentage points is low: $1,550 for the nuclear deal and $9,564 for the uranium surrender. Both books are thin enough that modest trades can create large swings.
Hengli’s denial reinforces the sense that economic pressure on Iran is intensifying, which reduces the odds of near-term concessions. Buying YES on the nuclear deal at 3¢ would pay 33.3x on a favorable resolution, but with no signs of a negotiation breakthrough, this is a high-risk bet.
Watch for official statements from the White House or Iranian leadership that could signal a shift. Any mediation activity from Oman or Turkey could also point to diplomatic progress.
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Us Iran Nuclear Deal April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 2.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2026 | 2.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31, 2026 | 40% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 26.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 13.9% | — | — | Trade → |
