Has Bitcoin Already Formed Its Cycle Bottom? Two Historical Signals Worth Watching
SLONINCRYPTO | Iurii Ovcharov3 min read·Just now--
Bitcoin has just given us two interesting and rare historical signals.
Neither of them should be treated as a guarantee. But both are worth paying attention to, especially when viewed in the context of previous market cycles.
1. Six consecutive green weekly candles
Bitcoin is currently close to forming its sixth consecutive weekly green candle.
I looked back at Bitcoin’s history from 2012 onward to see what happened after similar sequences of six weekly gains.
There were only 13 such cases.
Historically, after these signals:
- Bitcoin was higher after 1 week in *84.6%** of cases
- Bitcoin was higher after 2 weeks in *92.3%** of cases
- Bitcoin was higher after 1 month in *92.3%** of cases
- Bitcoin was higher after 3 months in *100%** of cases
- Bitcoin was higher after 6 months in *84.6%** of cases
- Bitcoin was higher after 12 months in *83.3%** of cases
The median return after 3 months was around +42%.
Of course, this does not mean Bitcoin “must” go up again. The sample size is limited, and historical performance never guarantees future results.
But statistically, such a pattern has historically appeared during periods of strong momentum.
2. Weekly RSI recovery after an oversold phase
The second signal comes from the weekly RSI.
Across Bitcoin’s entire history, there were only a few cases when the weekly RSI:
- dropped below 30,
- formed a golden cross,
- and then recovered back toward the 50 zone.
In previous cycles, when this structure appeared, Bitcoin had already formed its cycle low. The price did not immediately go straight up, but the major bottom was already behind. This is important.
In 2015, Bitcoin still moved sideways and tested the market’s patience before the real expansion began. In 2020, the COVID crash created another sharp correction, but it did not break the previous cycle low. In 2023, the recovery was also slow and uneven.
So the signal is not about “getting rich tomorrow.” It is more of a macro-cycle indicator. It suggests that the market may be transitioning from deep fear and capitulation into a gradual recovery phase.
What this means now
The current Bitcoin structure looks similar:
- weekly RSI dropped below 30,
- a golden cross appeared,
- RSI is recovering toward the 50 zone,
- and Bitcoin is showing strong weekly momentum.
Historically, buying Bitcoin around these “green circle” zones was a good long-term decision.
But it is also important to remember: Corrections can still happen. The price can still move below the local recovery area. The market can remain volatile for months before a sustainable uptrend begins.
And most importantly: history does not have to repeat.
My view
I would not interpret this as a short-term trading signal. I see it as one more piece of evidence that Bitcoin may already be in the recovery phase of the cycle. For long-term investors as me, this kind of structure is usually more important than short-term noise. But risk management still matters.
No single indicator should be used in isolation. I prefer to combine RSI, market structure, macro conditions, liquidity, on-chain data, whale behavior, and broader sentiment. Bitcoin may be entering a more constructive phase. But the path is unlikely to be linear.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational and analytical purposes only. It is not financial advice, not an investment recommendation, and not a call to buy or sell Bitcoin. Cryptocurrencies are high-risk assets, and past performance does not guarantee future returns.
