Goldman Sachs expects Gulf oil output to rebound following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The likelihood of WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April 2026 sits at 0.9% YES, down from 2% a week ago.
Goldman’s projection, reported by Reuters, suggests easing supply constraints, a bearish signal for oil prices. The April 2026 market resolves in 7 days, and the probability of WTI hitting $160 remains low. Related markets for WTI prices in April have also been trading at similarly low odds, with traders broadly skeptical of a spike.
Daily trading volume on the WTI $160 April market is at $487 in actual USDC. It takes $2,571 to move the market by 5 points, indicating moderate liquidity. The largest price move in the last 24 hours was negligible, consistent with the bearish outlook.
The Hormuz reopening is a concrete supply-side development, not background noise. At 0.9¢, a YES share would pay $1 if it resolves, a 111x return. But with output rebounding, the math looks unfavorable unless a new geopolitical shock disrupts supply again.
Watch for OPEC+ announcements on production adjustments and any developments affecting the Strait of Hormuz. Either could shift the odds considerably.
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